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National Repository of Grey Literature

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Evaluation of Macroeconomic forecasting accuracy Polák, Zdeněk ; Skuhrovec, Jiří (advisor) ; Martišková, Monika (referee) This thesis deals with real GDP growth forecasting. It includes comparison of predictive performance of OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic in period between 2000 and 2010. Forecast errors for Central European countries are analyzed and compared to forecast errors for G7 countries, which has never been done before. Organizations are benchmarked based on summary statistics, comparison with nave forecast, and directional and sign accuracy. Results of the analysis show that forecasts for expansion period are more accurate than forecasts for recession period. Furthermore, hypothesis that forecasts for G7 countries are on average more accurate than forecasts for Central European countries is not confirmed. This is particularly interesting for the Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, which did not outperform other organizations in forecasts for the Czech Republic and apparently has no comparative advantage in predicting economic development of the Czech Republic. Detailed record

The financing of central government deficit through the issue of bonds Kracík, Lukáš ; Radová, Jarmila (advisor) ; Coufal, Libor (referee) This diploma thesis deals with financing of central government deficit through the issue of government bonds and with overall context which is inextricably linked with this area. There is defined and discussed a basic terminology in terms of bond, budget system, budget deficit and public debt in the introductory theoretical chapters. We can find a description of development and management of central government debt in the Czech Republic in the next practical chapter of this diploma thesis. The gross borrowing requirements of the Czech Republic are largely covered by issue of government bonds and also by savings government bonds since 2011. The last chapter is devoted to the description of the process of a new euro-denominated issue of government bonds which is again shown on the example of the Czech Republic and its Ministry of Finance. Detailed record

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